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2.1.7 Future climate
Climate of Cleveland Bay will vary naturally as it has
done in the past. Human activities since the 19th century have, however,
superimposed a source of global climate change - the enhanced Greenhouse effect
(Houghton et al. 1996). Global temperatures are projected to rise over
the next century and early reports from the latest Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change third assessment due to be published in 2001 suggest that there
has already been “a discernible human influence on global climate” (Kerr, 2000).
Associated with global warming will be changes in atmospheric circulation patterns,
rainfall etc. The regional consequences of climate change due to global warming
are, however, less reliably projected than global or hemispherical changes.
Land and sea temperatures in Cleveland Bay have been warming but there is no
evidence, as yet, for significant changes in the rainfall regime. The biggest
unknown for future climate in this area is what may happen to ENSO which is
not as yet reliably modeled in the global climate models used to provide scenarios
of future climate (Hulme & Sheard, 1999; Walsh et al. 2000).
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